The Market for Trains

At least one-third of Americans do not have access to a car that they could take on a road trip, according to a new study by the Natural Resources Defense Council – and as we’ll discuss, the percentage is probably greater than that.

Yet for decades, civil engineers designed transportation systems in the United States assuming that everybody has a car. This thinking is changing – and some engineers are more accepting of the change than others – but we have a legacy system that supposes only the desperate aren’t driving.

People whose ability to drive is limited in some way fall into several categories, starting with the 5% of American adults of driving age who live in homes without any personal vehicles – a total of 15.7 million people. A map that breaks out this population by congressional district shows the greatest number of no-car adults living in urban districts, with the second highest level of carless residents living in rural or semi-rural districts, mostly in the Northeast and the South.

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People without cars are a natural market for regional and inter-city trains. But before anyone concludes that’s the extent of the market, the report asks us to account for all of the following:

• Adults of driving age who live in homes without any personal vehicles, as indicated above – 15.7 million.
• People whose access to a car is shared; specifically people of driving age who are in households where there are two or more drivers than vehicles – 26.1 million. These people may have access to a car to get to work or to run errands around town, but may not be able to take the car on an all-day or multi-day road trip.
• Disabled people who either don’t drive or don’t have car access – 34.6 million
• Young folks, ages 10-15, who are too young to drive but may have their own independent mobility needs – 21.6 million
• Old folks, ages 75+, who have a car and may not have a specific disability that prevents them from driving, but may no longer feel comfortable driving on the highway – 5.8 million

This adds up to 36% of Americans age 10+.

What the report does not take into account is vehicle quality. An immeasurable number of Americans do possess a personal vehicle, or have unfettered access to a vehicle, but it’s in such crappy condition that they don’t consider it road worthy, let alone comfortable, for an out-of-town trip. This is imprecise, but it probably puts the figure over 40% of Americans who do not have access to a car they can take on an out-of-town trip.

Additionally, for young people age 16-24 who do not have a car, it isn’t easy for them to rent one for their occasional needs. Car rental companies typically charge drivers under age 25 a “young driver fee” of approximately $25 per day. There are minimum ages for renters that range from 18-21, renters must have held a license for at least one year, and they must have a credit card in their own name.

Any transportation engineer who assumes that people will “just drive” is not considering the needs of a substantial minority of the American public.

Elected officials don’t ride the train

But the problem isn’t just engineers. Our political leaders often fail to see the significant number of people who cannot or should not drive. They proudly commit billons to road construction, but suddenly become champions of fiscal prudence when it comes to trains. Few elected officials fall into the above categories of people who can’t, don’t or shouldn’t drive. Even those who live in cities with decent transit seldom or never use it. We know this from talking to them, and asking them how they travel.

Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York are likely the only states where ANY members of the Legislature ride the train to travel to and from the state capital, and even then it’s probably not a great number.

We, the High Speed Rail Alliance, urge state lawmakers to commit state funds to make train travel fast, frequent, reliable and affordable. It’s a harder sell than it should be when using the train is an abstract concept for them.

How trains help us all

When trains have a captive audience, it’s easy to offer riders one train a day, take it or leave it. This is a mistake. With poor train service, many potential travelers may not go at all. Quality train service induces demand, which is good: It generates commerce, and increased mobility produces a better quality of life, in terms of job opportunities, access to recreation, education and culture, and simply easing boredom. Further, train travel is less environmentally detrimental than car travel, and over time train travel promotes land use that is economically sustainable, whereas car-based sprawl is not.

Further, quality train service can entice car owners to ride the train. The No. 1 factor in this decision is price, according to a European study. Frequency, travel time, reliability, safety and comfort are also important considerations.

We urge transportation planners, and the political leaders who decide how money is spent, to recognize the sizeable minority of Americans who can’t or won’t drive for an out-of-town trip, and the many more who could drive but would prefer not to if there was a better alternative. We want great trains.