New order outlines DOT agenda under Trump. It makes a powerful case for trains.

The US Department of Transportation recently issued an order that, if interpreted literally, makes a powerful case for big investments in high-speed rail, transit, and conventional passenger trains.

The order stipulates that “sound economic analysis” should guide the agency’s programs and policies. It also says priority will be given to programs that “utilize user-pay models.” And it commits the DOT under its new leader, Sean Duffy, to prioritizing projects that promote “economic opportunities, such as increased access to jobs, healthcare facilities, recreational activities, commercial activity, or any actions or project components that will help alleviate poverty, enhance safety, and primarily benefit families and communities by improving the quality of their lives, raising their standard of living, or enabling them to participate more fully in our economy.”

Trains hit each of these marks. They must be a top priority for a DOT that prioritizes sound economic analysis.

Trains align with the “user-pay” model.

It’s a myth that highways pay for themselves through gas taxes.

In truth, all taxpayers heavily subsidize highways in many ways.

The most obvious way is direct General Revenue payments into the highway trust fund. The current gap between gas-tax revenues and federal highway spending is about $20 billion per year. The total since 2009 is about $280 billion. And the gap keeps growing. Inflation steadily erodes the value of the 18.4 cents per gallon collected through the gas tax, for starters. (The purchasing power of a dollar is about half of what it was in 1993, when the rate was set.) At the same time, with the transition to EVs and hybrid vehicles, drivers buy less gas. And highway construction costs are rising faster than inflation. One analysis found that the annual rate of growth was about 15 percent from 2003 to 2024.

But federal taxpayer subsidies are just the beginning. We subsidize cars and highways in countless ways.

Here’s how it works: Parking minimums and zoning force cities to sprawl, which in turn causes the cost of roads, public utilities, and public services to climb. Meanwhile, states struggle to keep up with repair work; the infrastructure deteriorates; and crumbling roads drag down a state’s quality-of-life and eat up more and more of the budget.

Consider the case of Texas. Only 35 percent of its highway spending comes from federal subsidies. Most of the rest comes from state taxes and fees, including 17% from a statewide sales tax and 18% from what was originally a rainy day fund.  And Texas just keeps building more roads—adding more than 700 miles of new highway since 2014. The Texas Department of Transportation, for example, just embarked on a 10-year, $4.5 billion project to widen I-35 in Austin– over the objections of the city.

But the costs go way beyond just dollars. More driving means more air pollution, and more air pollution means worse health. Vehicle exhaust causes more premature deaths in the US each year—an estimated 58,000—than any other factor. Transportation also accounts for nearly 30 percent of US greenhouse-gas emissions. And driving creates a wide range of other costs and harms, including noise pollution, water pollution (from road salt, oil leaks, and decaying auto parts), and the time lost to traffic delays. “We are all—whether we like it or not—subsidizing the most dangerous and polluting mode of transport at the expense of getting to grips with the real transportation priorities of the 21st century,” as one analyst noted.

Parking spaces are a prime example of driving’s hidden costs. The US has an estimated 2 billion parking spaces—six for each registered car. As Business Insider notes, “they’re killing the economy.” The land could be used for housing, retail, and restaurants—to help build the tax base and relieve our affordable housing crisis. Insider reports that when curbside parking spaces were repurposed as patios for restaurant diners in Toronto, they generated 49 times the revenue that parking fees would have generated in the same space.

Simply put, highways bust budgets and impose hidden costs. They wreck our health and drive down the quality of life in our communities.

Instead of building new highways or adding lanes, we need to build new rail lines and add frequency to existing routes. Adding service increases revenue while fixed costs hold steady.

So the operating cost of the service (per passenger) decreases—along with the subsidies needed to keep it running. For example, ridership in California’s Capitol Corridor rose from a few hundred thousand people in the early 1990s to about 1.7 million in the early 2010s after the Corridor quadrupled its service frequency. As a result, the fare-box recovery rate spiked from 29 percent to 49 percent.

That’s the user-pay model at its best. The more driving we encourage, the worse off we are. The more train service we add, the better our health—in every sense.

Trains help families.

Time, safety, and the cost of living are major stressors for Americans. Trains offer relief on each front.

The high-speed lines now being planned or under construction in the US will slash travel times by half on some of the most dangerous and congested roads in America. Brightline West’s new line, for example, will cut the travel time from Las Vegas to the outskirts of LA to a little over 2 hours—versus 4 to 4.5 hours by car. The Dallas-to-Houston project being planned in Texas will cut travel time to about 90 minutes, versus 3.5 hours driving.

And both lines will vastly improve safety. Texas alone averages about 4,500 motor vehicle fatalities each year. Across the US, nearly 41,000 people were killed in motor vehicle crashes in 2023, and more than 7,300 pedestrians were killed by vehicles. The carnage imposes enormous financial and human costs. Meanwhile, there was one passenger death on all US passenger trains in 2023.

At the same time, safe and reliable trains and transit can save families money. On average, US households spent more than $12,000 on transportation in 2022. More than 90 percent of that went to owning and maintaining a car, which was the second-highest expense, after housing. About one-fourth of US households own three or more cars. At the same time, unfortunately, about half of households lack access to any public-transportation options. Investing in trains will simultaneously create good jobs (see below) and give people who don’t drive (or simply want other options) a reliable and affordable way to get to work. Quality trains also make it possible to take family outings—whether vacations or trips to see friends and family.

Fast, safe, and affordable transportation that’s low-stress and actually enjoyable—that’s a big win for families and a region’s overall quality of life.

Trains help workers and businesses.

Microsoft is partnering with states in the Northwest on a Cascadia “ultra” high-speed line because it will have a huge impact on the region’s economy. One study found that 200,000 “family-wage” jobs will be created just in building and operating the line. Overall, its economic impact is projected to be more than $350 billion. An industry publication described the line—which will connect Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver with trains running at more than 200 mph—as “part of Microsoft’s ongoing efforts to make the ‘Cascadia’ region an innovation hub akin to Silicon Valley.”

Conventional trains have major economic and workforce impacts as well. Consider the case of southern Michigan. Roughly 18 million people live in the corridor that stretches from Chicago to Detroit (south of Grand Rapids). No region in the US outside of the East Coast comes close to its combination of density and diversity. It’s home to major corporations as well as thousands of family businesses; world-class universities as well as dozens of community colleges; and global cities as well as scores of small and mid-sized communities. It also has good bones for a great transportation system, with two Amtrak lines that offer limited service.

Upgrading and expanding service on those lines would completely transform the region’s economy. Faster and more frequent trains would help workers and businesses alike. More students would be able to graduate from college; more workers would be able to upgrade their skills by taking classes; and all businesses would benefit from an expanded base of customers and workers.

Trains build a strong manufacturing base.

Global manufacturers like Alstom and Siemens Mobility already build Amtrak trains in the US, as the Alliance recently noted. Ordering more trains and helping build the nation’s rail-supply chain is a powerful lever for delivering on President Trump’s promise to rebuild America’s manufacturing base. Siemens alone has 4,500 US employees and 2,000 US-based suppliers, and it’s investing $220 million in a new production facility in Lexington, North Carolina. That plant will open this summer. Another facility, in upstate New York, will open next year.

A plan to make America great, again

Trump’s DOT has a great opportunity to put the US on a more prosperous path by applying the principles put forward in its recent order.

That will mean prioritizing investments in high-speed rail, conventional trains, and transit.  And it will mean directing the Federal Railroad Administration to develop a plan for a national railroad network.

The 69 projects in the Corridor ID program provide a basic framework. A plan will help the FRA coordinate with state DOTs to prioritize high-impact projects, get them underway, and make the network more than the sum of the parts.

Last summer, Donald Trump said the American train situation is “sad.” Other countries have “unbelievably fast” and “unbelievably comfortable” high-speed rail, he said, but “we don’t have anything like that in this country, not even close. And it doesn’t make sense that we don’t.”

He’s right. Trains basically built America in the nineteenth century. They can help rebuild and repair the nation now. The new order by Trump’s DOT makes a powerful case for doing just that. First we need a plan for a national network of fast, frequent, and affordable trains. Then we need to build it.